🔗 Share this article

The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by experts, encompassing a searing 4C rise in average temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea levels. Another scenario predicts a plunge of 6C in temperature following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy needs.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are linked to critical climate thresholds, are viewed as low probability but credible. The scientists stated that these models plugged a hole in risk assessment that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are plausible," commented Nigel Arnell who directed the research. "The UK has been making preparations lacking the methods to assess extreme possibilities. We've now given decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Severe Conditions Scenarios

A second set of dire projections maps the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could soar in some months by up to 6C above historical levels, while rainfall could be triple typical amounts.

The probability of the catastrophic events coming to pass remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what action will be enacted to tackle climate change and how the climate system will respond. This approach was likened to national security risk assessments or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Possibility Elements

• Severe Heating: Planetary heating exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts collapses or if vicious cycles including the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source unleash its vast reserves of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heatwaves and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is slowing down and showing signs of collapse due to global heating. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would be severely challenged and water supplies would be completely altered," noted the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in the polar regions melt abruptly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be utilized in planning the development of long-term infrastructure, including expanded cities, power generation facilities and water management networks. Understanding these future hazards could also hasten the transition to slash carbon pollution.

The research formulated the severe projections using a blend of real-world events, computer simulations and scientific theory. The scenarios exclude broader worldwide issues like the devastation of food supplies and increased conflict.

The research was initiated as part of a national climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have warned that not enough attention was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the dangers for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "very weak" by some observers.

An official statement said: "Climate change is at the core of the country's focus, both building resilience and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the effects."