Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The typical figure of daily homicides per month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new official data. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen in these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the least amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts warned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.